Week 4

Week 4 

Last week I almost was back to normal. Lost a few games due to the hook and ended up going 10-6, I'll take that. I also hit my 3 team parlay and 2 out of the 3 moneyline upsets. This week I'm shooting for a minimum 11 wins (only 13 games)

Thursday Night

NYG @ Washington WAS -3

The home team has won and covered in each of the first three Thursday Night Football games; I am sticking with that. Washington looked incredible against the Eagles and barring a late interception by Kirk Cousins, they were in line to win that game. 

WAS -3

Carolina @ Baltimore BAL -3

Baltimore is coming off of a big comeback win against Cleveland and Carolina is kind of licking their wounds from the pounding they took at home against Pittsburgh. Baltimore dominated Pittsburgh at home two weeks ago on Thursday, but Carolina will bounce back and cover/win this game.

CAR +3

Green Bay @ Chicago CHI +1.5

Green Bay has not looked like the NFC North Champions they were last season. The Bears are coming off of back to back wins on prime time television. I'm taking the Bears, if they can get to Rodgers they will win this game. Take the points though.

CHI +1.5

Buffalo @ Houston HOU -3.5

This is a big iffy game; I personally think it should be a pick... I'm taking Houston -3.5... not happy with either team with/without the points

HOU -3.5

Tennessee @ Indianapolis IND -7.5

Tennessee has looked good and looked absolutely awful against better teams this year. Don't let Indy's record fool you. Indy will win by 2 scores here.

IND -7.5

Detroit @ NYJ NYJ +1.5

Usually I am a fan of getting points at home but Detroit is just bigger/faster/stronger and have so many weapons on the offensive side. The Jets on the other hand have two rooking Cornerbacks that love to run their mouths. Detroit wins by 7 minimum.

DET -1.5 

Miami @ Oakland OAK +3.5

Lamar Miller should have a good day on the ground against a sub par Oakland run defense. Oakland hung around with New England last weekend and tends to cover at home. I'm going balls out here and taking Oakland as an upset.

OAK +3.5

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh PIT -7.5

Tampa has looked horrendous since Lovie Smith has taken over the team. I'm not even going into detail here. Pittsburgh by a lot.

PIT -7.5

Jacksonville @ San Diego SD -13.5

Jacksonville got spanked last week in Indy and expect the same when they travel into San Diego.

SD -13.5

Atlanta @ Minnesota MIN +3

Atlanta is far too fast and talented for Minnesota's mediocre pass rush. Atlanta flat out embarrassed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (devilish smile). They will beat up on Minnesota but not nearly as bad as the did in Tampa. Atlanta by 10.

ATL -3

Philadelphia @ San Francisco SF -5

Frisco has not looked like the team they once were the past few years and cant seem to close out games. Philly is the exact opposite. Philly will fall behind and come back in this on as well. Take Philly with the points.

PHI +5

New Orleans @ Dallas DAL +3

Both teams have looked good and both teams have looked bad. Romo will be Romo here and turn the ball over late. Fire on New Orleans here.

NO -3

New England @ Kansas City KC +3

Another game I would personally stay away from but I like New England here.

NE -3

Three Team Parlay

ATL -3

PIT -7.5

IND -7.5

Moneyline Upsets

PHI

CHI

Week 3

Well, I took an absolute beating last week in my picks. I'm not even going to go over the numbers; they were flat out embarrassing. For all of those that are new to the "Sloppy Spread", have a little faith. I have never had a week that bad and do not intend to ever again. Okay onto the picks! I am going back to my old format of games listed rather than by AFC/NFC (superstition).

Thursday Night

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta  ATL -5.5

Josh McCown is the X-factor for the bucs. He hasn't looked well at all in the first 2 games. Same system, same head coach, different team. Mccown will bounce back and have an better than average game against a sub par ATL secondary. Tampa will cover and might actually win this game
TB + 5.5

Sunday Noon Games

San Diego @ Buffalo  BUF -2.5

San Diego hung around with one of the best defenses in the league and beat the best defense in the league. Record they are 1+1. Buffalo is a surprising 2-0, they beat an not so good Bears defense who pretty much handed them the game and a decent Miami Dolphins. I'm taking SD with the points.

SD +2.5

Tennessee @ Cincinnati  CIN -6.5

AJ Green has practiced twice this week; Wednesday he had a limited practice. Thursday was a full practice and listed as probable, which means he is playing. Even if he wasn't playing I'd take Cincinnati.

Cincinnati -6.5

Baltimore @ Cleveland  CLE +1.5

Cleveland looked outstanding last week against the New Orleans Saints, while Baltimore's defense looked like the Ray Lewis days against Pittsburgh. Between Bernard Pierce an Justin Forsett I see the Ravens winning this game by double digits.

BAL -1.5

Green Bay @ Detroit  DET -1

This is a hard one. Its a NFC North divisional game. Green Bay has now come out of the gates stumbling in both games. Detroit looked outstanding week one against a horrible New York Giants team. I'd stay away from this game but I'm leaning towards Detroit.

DET -1

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville  JAX +6.5

Indy 1000% yes 1000%, nothing to say here. Indy is 0-2 that's going to change,

IND -6.5

Oakland @ New England  NE -13.5

This line has gone from -10 to now -13.5; meaning everyone is firing on New England. I'm with everyone else New England by minimum.

NE -13.5

Minnesota @ New Orleans  NO -11.5

This is the second of many weeks without Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, New Orleans are 0-2 which is unheard of since Drew Brees came to the Saints. The Saints at home are hungry for a win. New Orleans wins in a landslide.

NO -11.5

Houston @ New York Giants  NYG -3

A tale of two very sub par teams. The Giants are absolutely horrible, Eli Manning has looked like a back up quarterback for the past 3 years. This will continue and Houston comes out on top here.

HOU +3

Washington @ Philadelphia  PHI -7

Kirk Cousins gets the start with an injured RGIII; which in my eyes is better for the Redskins. Cousins is a pass first scramble later quarterback and a more stable pocket QB. Washington has some decent talent with their receivers but..... they won't be able to keep up with the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles.

PHI -7

Dallas @ St. Louis  STL +1

St. Louis is banged up in almost every aspect of their team. Their front 4 which was supposed to be the best in the league is dwindling down due to injuries and under performance. This might be the only time I bet with Romo and the Cowboys.

DAL -1

Sunday Late Afternoon Games

San Francisco @ Arizona  ARI +1.5

San Francisco should be 2-0 but they lost the game themselves last week. Arizona is starting Drew Stanton again (MSU!) Even though San Francisco's defense is "banged up" I like them with the points

SF +1.5

Kansas City @ Miami  MIA -3.5

Kansas City has a new emerging back in the second year runner Knile Davis. Jamaal Charles is listed as a gane time decision. If he plays he will be splitting carries with Knile Davis due to his high ankle sprain. Whether Charles plays or not KC WINS THIS GAME.

KC +3.5

Denver @ Seattle  SEA -4.5

Rematch of last years Super Bowl.... This time it's not at a "neutral location" I like Seattle by 6 in this one.

SEA -4.5

Sunday Night

Pittsburgh @ Carolina  CAR -3
.
It seems every spread for a Carolina Panthers game is between 3-6. This is because they are good but 90% (made up stat)  I like Carolina at home here giving 3

CAR -3

Monday Night

Chicago @ New York Jets  NYJ -1.5

Da BEARSSSSS. The Jets secondary has been talking smack, who has been running their mouth you ask?? A rookie who has played 2 games in the NFL. Healthy Marshall and healthier Jeffery means a Bears W.

CHI +1.5


Three Team Parlay

CHI +1.5

KC +3.5

INDY -6.5


Moneyline Upset Specials

CHI

KC

SF 

Fire on all three is you would like, they're all winners this week.

Week 2 2014-2015

Welcome back to The Sloppy Spread! This is your one stop shop for all your NFL picks. Last season I started this a little late and only covered the last couple of weeks. This season I will be splitting it up by AFC/NFC. Well onto the picks!

AFC

Thursday Night

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore  Spread: BAL -3 O/U 44 1/2

Take Pittsburgh with the points; if Pittsburgh showed us anything last week is that they will literally kick their opponents teeth in. Although this is a rivalry game; I don't see Baltimore putting up much of a fight.

PIT +3

Sunday

New Orleans @ Cleveland Spread: NO -7 O/U 47 1/2

WHO DAT??? Saints all the way, not much needs to be said here. The Saints passing game has improved with the addition of rookie wide-out from Oregon State Brandin Cooks. While Cleveland's number 1 running back is hurt in Ben Tate and they really don't have a number one WR. New Orleans big here

NO -7

Seattle @ San Diego Spread: SEA -6 O/U 44 1/2

I usually don't bet on Seattle but after the week one whomping on the Packers; the Seahawks or "Hawks" as commentators are trying to push look even better than last year, granted that was at home with the "twelfth man". Seattle by at least a TD here.

SEA -6

Kansas City @ Denver Spread: Denver -13 O/U 51 1/2

This is what I call a trap bet. Personally I am not giving this a second look. Denver came out like they do every game full throttle first half big lead; and cruise control in the second. If you're feeling lucky take KC. Peyton doesn't do so well against the spread.

KC +13

Houston @ Oakland Spread: HOU -3 O/U 39 1/2

Another game I won't be betting but for the fun of it take Oakland with the points. Derek Carr looks better than his brother did in only one game in the NFL, and Houston doesn't have much going for them. I'm always a fan of the home team with points.

OAK +3

Atlanta @ Cincinnati Spread CIN -5 O/U 48

Matt Ryan looked brilliant last week as he added another comeback/tying drive late in the fourth quarter. Everyone is healthy in HOTlanta take em with the points.

ATL+5

Philadelphia @ Indianapolis (Monday Night) Spread: IND -3 O/U 53 1/2

Andrew Luck at home against a team that came out flat against the Jacksonville Jaguars.... Fire on luck Indy will win by 10+.

IND -3

NFC

Detroit @ Carolina Spread: CAR -3 O/U 43 1/2

Cam's first game (possibly) of the season against a defense that has gotten stronger and faster, with the addition of Golden Tate which only makes Detroit a bigger sleeper in the NFC North. I love Detroit with the points with or with out Cam Newton starting for Carolina.

DET -3

New England @ Minnesota Spread: NE-3 O/U 49

I truly feel that the Brady era is coming to an end. The Pats fell to an average Miami Dolphins and let Knowshon Moreno run for 134 yds on 24 carries and a TD; do you think they're going to stop AP??? Nope! Take Minnesota with the points at home.

MIN +3

**UPDATED NO ADRIAN PETERSON; HE IS INACTIVE... TAKE THE PATS -3

Arizona @ New York Giants Spread ARI -3 O/U 43

STAY AWAY FROM THIS GAME!!! Eli Manning continues to look worse every week and Arizona did not impress me against San Diego last Monday night. For the hell of it I'll take the Giants with the points...remember they are at home.

NYG +3

Dallas @ Tennessee Spread: TEN - 3 1/2 O/U 49 1/2

As long as Tony Romo is quarterback the Cowboys will only beat the spread on avg just over 3/16 games, Every week you will see a trend I will always bet against Romo. 

Tennessee -3

Jacksonville @ Washington: Spread WAS -6 O/U 43 1/2

Jacksonville doesn't play well at home or on the road. They are still a few years away from a .500 season.

WAS -6

Chicago @ San Francisco: Spread SF -7 O/U 48 1/2

The Bears have not won in Frisco since 1985 and that was with arguably one of the best defenses of all time. This year they're defense is already ranked in the bottom half of the NFL. It hurts me to say as a Bears fan but take the 49ers here.

SF -7

Three team parlay

Minnesota +3 DO NOT USE MINNESOTA IN YOUR THREE TEAMER SEE BELOW

Detroit +3

San Francisco -7
INDY -3

MONEYLINE UPSET

Minnesota Vikings over the New England Patriots **UPDATED DO NOT TAKE MINNESOTA. AP IS NOT PLAYING THIS SUNDAY!!!
Detroit is a moneyline special!

O/U

SEA --Over

Det -- Under