Week 17

Week 17

Welcome everybody to Week 17. This is the final week of the NFL regular season. In week 16 I went 10-6. Again, one of my moneyline upset picks came in. New England smoked Baltimore 41-7. Also, Peyton Manning set the single season touchdown record with 51 touchdowns. Tom Brady held the record since 2007 with 50 touchdowns. Enough about stats let's take a look at this upcoming week. This week is the most challenging week for picks. Many teams will have their star players sitting at least one half due to clinching playoff spots.

Sunday:

Carolina at Atlanta (CAR -5.5 O/U 45.5)

Carolina enters at the top of the NFC SOUTH and clinched the one of the wild card spots. Cam Newton will shred the 28th ranked total defense and cover.

CAR -5.5

Baltimore at Cincinnati (CIN -6 O/U 44.5)

Baltimore enters this game tied for the second wild card spot in the AFC with Miami and San Diego; while Cincinnati has already clinched the AFC North. Baltimore will fall short this game and miss the playoffs. Cincinnati wins and covers here.

CIN -6

Houston at Tennessee (TEN -7 O/U 44.5)

This game means nothing to either team. Houston has lost 13 straight games and Tennessee is an embarrassing 2-5 at home. Take Houston with the points.

HOU +7

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-11.5 O/U 45.5)

Indy clinched the AFC South weeks ago. Andrew Luck will most likely play the first half at most and the back up is the experienced Matt Hasselbeck. Although, Jacksonville has stayed in games over the last month they won't come close in this game.

Indy -11.5

New York Jets at Miami (MIA -6.5 O/U 41)

Miami needs a win and some help if they want to make the playoffs. They enter this game in a three way time between Baltimore and the San Diego Chargers for the last spot in the AFC playoff picture. Miami will cover and win 7.

MIA -6.5

Detroit at Minnesota (MIN -3.5 O/U 51.5)

The Lions have had one of the worst second half's of the season in the NFL losing 5 of their last 6 games, Detroit was eliminated from playoff contention after and overtime loss to the Giants last week. Minnesota also had nothing to play for entering the game 4-10-1. Detroit will win this game. Take them on the moneyline.

DET +3.5

Washington at New York Giants (NYG -3.5 O/U 45.5)

Washington lost to the Giants in Week 13 24-17. The Giants are 13th best in the league against the pass. As long as the double up on Pierre Garcon New York will breeze through this game and win by 7+.

NYG -3.5

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (PIT -7 O/U 44)

Pittsburgh has a tiny chance to make the playoffs. They need to win while Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego all need to lose. With that being said they can make the playoffs but need a lot of help. Cleveland continues to look bad week in and week out. Pittsburgh by 10 here.

PIT -7

Green Bay at Chicago (GB -3 O/U 53)

DO NOT TOUCH THIS GAME!! Rodgers returns for his first game since the last time the Packers faced off against the Bears on Monday night in Week 9. Rodgers also has one of his weapons back this week in Randall Cobb. The winner takes the division in this week 17 divisional matchup. GB wins wins by 7.

GB-3

Denver at Oakland (DEN -12 O/U 53.5)

If Peyton Manning plays one down in this game it will be one too many. They have clinched the AFC West after beating Houston 37-13 and KC's loss to Indy. Oakland has been out of contention for quite some time. Oakland will cover.

OAK +12

Buffalo at New England (NE -9 O/U 47)

The good thing about this game if you want to bet it is Bill Belichick shows no mercy and Brady will most likely play. Buffalo is ranked in the top ten in passing defense and rushing defense this year. New England is 7th in the league in passing. Tom Brady is averaging 264.8 yds per game. I'm going to take a shot here and take Buffalo here with the points.

BUF +9

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (NO -12.5 O/U 47.5)

New Orleans has never needed a win as much as they do this week. The are currently a game behind the Panthers for the division. If they win and Carolina loses they win the division due to the record in their division tie-breaker. If the lose they do not make the playoffs. Tampa has been a jeckel and hyde team all season (mostly bad). I really like New Orleans here.

NO -12.5

San Francisco at Arizona (SF -1 O/U 42)

Sadly, Arizona has a chance to go 11-5 and not make the playoffs. This hasn't happened since the 2008 New England Patriots. San Francisco has a chance to hop into homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They need a win and a Seattle loss. Frisco will win this game by double digits.

SF -1

Kansas City at San Diego (SD -10 O/U 45)

Stay away from this game. Kansas City is coming off of a loss to Indy and San Diego beat the Raiders last week. KC can't better their seed for the playoffs and SD is in a 3-way tie for the last wild card spot with Miami and Baltimore. Plus this looks like a dummy bet with the Chargers favored by 10. Take KC even if half the team doesn't play.

KC +10

St. Louis at Seattle (SEA -10 O/U 43)

Seattle has the best total defense in the NFL and number 1 in passing defense. St. Louis has defeated some great teams this year (ARZ, IND, CHI) I like Seattle to win but not cover.

STL +10

Philadelphia at Dallas (PHI -3 O/U 55.5)

Tony Romo will not play due to injury; which might be the best thing for a struggling Dallas team. Romo has given away more games then anyone this season. This is another game where the winner wins the division. Dallas defeated the Eagles 17-3 in week 7. The man with the neck beard Kyle Orton will start for the Dallas Cowboys and defeat the Eagles.

DAL +3

Three Teamer 
San Francisco -1
St. Louis +10
Miami -6.5

O/U Special
BUF/NE Over
JAX/INDY Under
STL/SEA Over

Moneyline upset 
Dallas

Houston

Week 16

Week 16

Welcome to week 16 of the NFL season. Last week I posted a 9-7 record. My key losses included Philadelphia and the New Orleans Saints. One of my moneyline upsets did hit (Baltimore over Detroit). Here is what we have to look forward to this week.

Thursday: NO GAMES

Sunday:

Miami @ Buffalo (MIA -2.5; O/U 43.0)
I like Miami with such a small spread; they have been playing better over the last five and had a big win against New England. Tannenhill and his offense are clicking and Buffalo is 27th in the NFL against the pass. Look to see Miami win by at least 3.
Miami -2.5

Minnesota @ Cincinnati (CIN -7; O/U 48)
Minnesota had the biggest upset of the week last Sunday by absolutely SLAPPING the Eagles around. They defeated Philadelphia without their number one and two running backs (Peterson and Gerhart). As of now Leslie Frazier has said that both will play this upcoming Sunday. That being said Minnesota WILL COME BACK TO EARTH this week and lose by more than 7.
Cincinnati -7

Indianapolis @ Kansas City (KC -6.5; O/U 43.5)
This is a tough selection and I could choose either side. KC's confidence is soaring this week after their offensive performance last week, led by Jamaal Charles and his 5 TDs (4 receiving and 1 rushing). Indy is coming off a win against a less than mediocre Houston team, for fun I like Indy with the points.
Indianapolis +6.5

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis (STL -5; O/U 42.5)
St. Louis upset Drew Brees and the Saints last Sunday.Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the NFL against the run, ranking 18th in the league. Zac Stacy will have 150+ yds and a TD. The rams win by 7+
St. Louis -5

Cleveland @ New York Jets (NYJ -2.5; O/U 40.5)
Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland! That is all I am saying.
Cleveland +2.5

Dallas @ Washington (DAL -2.5; O/U 53.5)
Kirky Cousins looked like he has been Washington's starter all year in his first start last week. He will look better against the league's worst ranked passing defense, the Dallas Cowboys. Take Washington and the points
Washington +2.5

New Orleans @ Carolina (CAR -3; O/U 47)
This is a very tough game to pick. New Orleans was embarrassed by the Rams last week while the Panthers beat the Jets by 10. The winner of this game takes the division. I would stay away from it, but if I had to pick I would take Carolina to win this game and the division.
Carolina -3

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (TEN -5.5 O/U 44)
Tennessee on the road is a completely different team then when they are at home. The positive to them playing on the road this week is that they will take a short trip to play an embarrassing team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Take Tennessee -5.5
Tennessee -5.5

Denver @ Houston (DEN -10.5 O/U 51.5)
Denver all the way. After a losing to the Chargers last Thursday, Peyton Manning will bounce back. Also, the Broncos are tied with the Chiefs (DEN has tie breaker) in the division with the final two games left in the season. Denver by 14 here.
Denver -10.5

New York Giants @ Detroit (DET -8.5 O/U 48.5)
The New York Giants are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season. Detroit will be in a win or go home mentality for the final two games. Detroit will win but the Giants will cover. Take the New York Football Giants here with the points here.
New York Giants +8.5

Arizona @ Seattle (SEA -10.5 O/U 43.5)
Seattle at home; hands down.
Seattle -10.5

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay (EVEN O/U n/a)
Aaron Rodgers is still not cleared to play this week; and the Packers are ranked 25th against the run the NFL. Leveon Bell will run at will against the Packers. Pittsburgh is the winner here.
Pittsburgh

Oakland @ San Diego (SD -10 O/U 50.5)
San Diego is still in a playoff hunt while Oakland has a chance to play spoilers. San Diego will be victorious but not win by 10+. I'm picking Oakland with the points.
Oakland +10

New England @ Baltimore (Bal -1 O/U 45.5)
Although Baltimore is coming off a upset Monday night against the Detroit Lions; New England will win this game straight up.
New England +1

Chicago @ Philadelphia (PHI -3 O/U 56)
STAY AWAY!! I will not be touching this game; but for the fun of it I'll take Da Bearss!
Chicago +3

Monday:

Atlanta @ San Francisco (SF -13 O/U 45)
San Francisco is 5-2 at home this season and defeated the Seattle (12-2) two weeks ago. I love San Francisco at home. Take them minus the points.
San Francisco -13

Three Teamer:
Seattle -10.5
New England +1
St. Louis -5

Over/Under Specials
New England/Baltimore - Over
Cleveland/New York Jets - Over
New Orleans/Carolina - Under

Moneyline Upsets
Cleveland and New England

Week 15 - NFL

Thursday:

San Diego vs Denver (SD+ 10.5)
Denver by 13. Look for Decker and FINALLY Demaryus Thomas to fill the void with Welker not playing after getting his 2nd concussion in four weeks. Also a healthy Julius Thomas at TE means at least one red zone TD for him.

Sunday:

Washington vs Atlanta  (WASH+ 6)
I Like "Warm" Lanta here (still not hot) they are a miserable  3 and 10 on the season. They are coming off of a loss to the GB Packers where they lead the entire game. Matt Ryan and Roddy White (who is now healthy) are finally clicking together and Steven Jackson has been averaging just under 4 yds per rush the past three weeks. Look for the falcons to win by a TD+

San Francisco vs Tampa Bay (TB+ 5)
Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey will be shut down this week. Frisco by 10+ End of story

Seattle vs New York Giants (NYG+ 7)
Seattle heads into New York to take on the football Giants. I personally wouldn't touch this game; but for the degenerates that love action look for the Giants to keep it within a TD.

Chicago vs Cleveland (CHI+ 2.5)
Take Chicago with the pts. I personally like DA BEARSS on the moneyline. They are coming off a huge win against "America's Team" and are in a sudden death race with the Lions. They cannot afford to lose a game. Looking at Cleveland they will make a game out of this but fall short as they do in most games.

Houston vs Indianapolis (HOU +6)
Coin flip. I wouldn't touch this game with your grandma's money. Both teams are terrible. If i had to pick Id go with Houston just because I have fantasy value there.

Buffalo vs Jacksonville (JAX +2)
Climb aboard the Jaguar TRAIN!!! Jacksonville is officially on a winning streak and Buffalo has no defense. Jacksonville wins this game

New England vs Miami (MIA+3)
New England has given up 57 points in the last two weeks. They won both games but allowed Houston to score 31 and Cleveland to score 26.Although New England has forgotten how to play defense; I still like them with such a small spread. With that being said; Miami will NOT cover in this game. Miami loses by 6+.

Philadelphia vs Minnesota (MIN +4.5)
Philly all the way to the bank! Adrian Peterson says he is playing this week; but that's just his story. There is no word on whether or not he is cleared to play after sustaining an ankle sprain last week against the Ravens. Even if Peterson plays; I don't see them keeping up with Philly's "college" esque play calling. Their defense is just getting too old.

New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers (NYJ +11)
I usually stay away from double digit point spreads and I will do the same here. The Jets have been pitiful in the second half of the season. Although Carolina has been hot; winning 8 of their last 9 played. This is a sucker bet. STAY AWAY!!!

Kansas City vs Oakland (OAK +4)
Kansas City wins by double digits. Oakland is playing good football as of late but their mediocre offense is no match for Koolaid's defense.

Arizona vs Tennessee (TEN +3)
I like Arizona here; they always seem to cover. Whether they are favored or dogs, they cover. If you want to take Tennessee I'd recommend teasing it and making it +9.

New Orleans vs St. Louis (STL +6)
The Saints are still in a division race with the Carolina Panthers which means every down they will be going all out on. Drew Brees will shred STL's secondary and put up at least 3 TDs. Not only does New Orleans win but they cover... by a lot.

Green Bay vs Dallas (EVEN)
Aaron Rodger is still NOT cleared by the Packers. GB still wins this game. The packers have the ability to shut down the run. Dez Bryant will likely still go for 100 yds+ but lets face it no matter the spread is Dallas doesn't cover.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh (PIT +3)
This is another game I won't be touching. Both teams are horrible against the spread. Pittsburgh has been better as of late but I don't trust either team.

MONDAY NIGHT:

Baltimore vs Detroit (BAL +6)
Baltimore is looking like old as of late; with Ray Rice returning to last seasons form as well. Look to see Baltimore cover and possibly even win this game straight up.

3 TEAMER

KC -4
NO -6
PHI -4.5

MONEYLINE UPSET
JACKSONVILLE and/or BALTIMORE